_*Dr.Ravi Godse -a 2100 mile long border, conflicting worldviews; India And China*_
Given the current tensions between India and China, let us quickly review the relations between these countries historically. Here we encounter the first major problem. We can’t do it quickly. The two ancient cultures, emerging Asian nuclear superpowers, a 2100 mile long border, conflicting worldviews; their relationships are too nuanced to be subject to a quick review. We need to take our time. It is easy to escalate things, a child can do that, but de-escalation requires mature reflection. The loss of life in the Indian army was terrible, but I was aghast to see some celebratory posts regarding the estimated loss of life on the Chinese side. This is bad news. When Iran and the USA were on the brink, the world heaved a sigh of relief, because there was no loss of US life during Iran’s retaliation. The more hardened the positions of the warring parties, more loss of flexibility in the negotiating posture.
Historians wish at times that nations should have clearly demarcated natural borders. Wet borders like rivers and seas are the best. Had the Rhine been accepted as the border between France and Germany, as it is now, we might have been saved from the world wars. India and China are separated by the mighty Himalayas and that is as good a barrier as it can get. These neighbors have lived with relative harmony since the time when most of the rest of the world was swinging from trees. Let us acknowledge Buddhism went from India to China and let us ignore the ill-fated invasion of China by Muhammad bin Tughluq. (He was Turkic, and China was ruled by Mongols at that time, so no need to fight about it)
In early 1800s there was a huge demand for Chinese silk and porcelain in England but nothing to sell back or exchange. That is, until they hit upon the idea of opium. The Chinese population fell in love with it and almost an entire generation was destroyed. That opium was grown in India. By 1839 (the time of the first opium war), whatever romantic pre-conceptions we may have, India was firmly ruled by the East India Company and China was on the path to be dominated by the Western powers. No need for India or China to bear each other ill will over what was essentially a British operation.
While India was trying for Home rule, China tried a republic from 1912, only to give way to confusion. From 1931, Nationalist and Communists in China were embattled. These two groups hated each other as much as two groups can hate each other, but they still came together to fight the Japanese invasion of China, which expanded seriously in 1937. It is fascinating to see what Mr. Nehru, who was sitting in Ahmadnagar jail in 1944, contemplating soon leading India, wrote about China. He expressed support for the Communist party, while noting clearly that life is so complicated that it would be illogical to assume that it can fit within the four corners of a Marxist world view. He of course did not have the benefit of knowing what was going to happen in the future and he might have been influenced by the fact that in the 1943 Indian famine, China had helped Indians though they themselves were not doing that well.
India became master of her own destiny from 1947, and Communist China followed suit with firm control over Mainland China, forming the People’s Republic of China in 1949.
There followed an intense honeymoon from these recent powers that lasted a few years, and then there was the Dalai Lama. Means, he was always there but he entered the scene forcefully. Let us try and quickly understand Tibet. Coolly. Let us put ourselves in Chinese shoes. Not too hard, as most thing we wear in India and USA are anyway made in China. I spoke to a lot of Chinese friends to understand the viewpoint.
Imagine, there was a nation in the Arabian Sea very close to India and that nation had a province of ethnic Marathi people. Now if that province was to separate and become an independent Marathi country, the government of India will be very cautious to ensure that Maharashtra is not enticed to split and join this nation. Forget hypotheticals, if the Tamils in Sri Lanka had formed an independent Tamil nation, wouldn’t there be temptation for Tamil Nadu to follow suit, thus risking fragmentation of India?
China has a huge ethnic Tibetan population and an independent Tibet may lead to strife and fragmentation. Since China built the high-speed rail to Tibet, it has been completely incorporated. So China is sensitive about it. When the Dalai Lama visited India in 1956, the Chinese premier also happened to visit Delhi at the same time. Surprise, surprise. After India offered asylum to the Dalai Lama and it wasn’t a sudden or rushed decision, assuming that relations with China won’t deteriorate would be an advanced form of naïveté.
Then came the annexation of Goa by India in 1961. Recall that Portugal still controlled Macau in China and though returned in 1999, it remains a Special Administrative Region of China. Please note that an Indian citizen can visit Macau up to 30 days just with an Indian passport and Chinese citizens need to apply for a permit. When India annexed Goa, China could have taken over Macau, but it didn’t do that. Western democracies (including the American Kennedy administration) were monumentally miffed with India for that move. The USSR was supporting India, but India’s stock was low elsewhere.
China struck in October 1962 and quickly annexed whatever it needed in hurry and having attained its military objectives, declared a unilateral ceasefire. It was a textbook execution of fait accompli. That led to the famous incident when Mr. Nehru said, “not even a blade of grass grows in that region” and a frustrated MP pointed to his bald head. I spoke to a lot of Chinese people and no one has any knowledge of 1962 conflict. They are just not aware of it. Almost akin to our being taught that it was a draw.
The Nixon administration was eyeing to open China to American trade since the beginning and in 1971, China had a prime opportunity to help Nixon and make mischief for India: by intervening in the war of Bangladeshi independence. Indeed, documents suggest that the Nixon administration was encouraging China, but the simplest explanation seems to be that the conflict, which was projected to be protracted, ended quickly. In late 1970s, relations started improving and border control was brushed aside. The relationship steadily improved.
China has done well in the recent past. So has India. Both are diametrically different. Let us just take a simple illustration. I grew up in Mumbai and spent a few years of my life stuck in a traffic jam near the airport. The train that connects Shanghai city to the airports hurtles at the speed that reaches at times 431 kilometers per hour. Mumbai cannot build a bullet train because a single place of worship, single environmental group can tie the government in litigation for years. That is India’s weakness, and it is India’s strength: the durability of its democratic institutions. The number of Indian soldiers dead on the border will have to be published, and the media will deal with it any which way they want. Numbers coming from China will be numbers coming from China. Nothing more, nothing less.
The world is reeling from the pandemic. Strangely, China’s economy seems to have suffered the least. If India wanted to tangle with China, this would be the best time and also the worst time. The Indian economy has shrunk, the pandemic is still raging, the rest of the world, while definitely resentful about China, is too busy to offer any practical help. If China comes up with a Covid vaccine, that will also create a seismic shift.
No further escalation will be the first step. Face-saving measures for both countries will be next. While we deeply mourn our loss, it is time to take a deep breath and to remember that revenge is the dish best served cold. Well, revenge is an unsavory term. Let us hope that revenge is not needed and everyone gets to win without anyone having to lose.
